Andy’s Airplane Book Reads: “Thinking in Bets” Edition
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Where to Read: Trip to Las Vegas or any other destination you might gamble
Recently, my wife and I took a weekend trip to Las Vegas. That meant flying, and to me, flying means reading.
Admittedly, I am not much of a gambler. I’ve played cards socially with friends and put a few dollars in fun looking slot machines. Though I did not plan to gamble much in Vegas, a book by poker legend Annie Duke called “Thinking in Bets” seemed like an appropriate read. Who knows? Maybe the book would change my mind and I’d have a new hobby.
I can tell you now, it did not. If anything, it did the opposite and I stuck to my plan of playing just a few slots for fun.
This is because the book is not about poker – it’s about the methods she used to make world champion level decisions. The premise is that in life, like poker, decisions have to be made without knowing all the facts. It’s best to embrace the uncertainty and acknowledge that your decision is really a gamble. There is a chance it will work and there is a chance it won’t.
It gets interesting when she takes it further and argues that how it turns out does not change whether or not you made a correct choice. If you bet on something that has a 70% chance of winning, even if you lose, it was still the correct choice. The choice wasn’t wrong just because you lost.
Separating the decision from the outcome allows you to refine future decisions. For example, you can say that in the 30% of the time where the bet loses, what are the likely reasons and can any of them be avoided?
I don’t want to give away the whole book, but she does give many practical examples and the latter half of the book dives deep into the strategies and routines she personally uses.
Which is why I chose to avoid the card games on this trip. No book was going to give me the experience I would need to do anything other than win a lucky hand or two – and I might as well stick to the slots with that mindset.
I have started applying her strategies in my business, and I like it. I’m more confident in my decisions, accepting in advance that there is a chance it won’t work out.
If I had to make a bet, I would bet on reading the book. I would say there is a 10% chance you either already think this way or won’t see the value and a 90% chance you’ll see your choices in a fresh light.
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